Suella Braverman receives warm reception at Express party
When Suella Braverman came on to the stage at the Daily Express’s event at the Conservative Party conference last month there was no doubt how much sway she holds in the party.
The Home Secretary’s name was chanted by dozens of enthusiastic Conservative members and her speech cheered to the rafters.
A bunch of liberal wet MPs on the left of the Tories get snooty about her common sense utterances on migration, the homeless and pro-Palestinian “hate marches”.
But there is no doubt that her popular Conservatism resonates with Conservative members, Express readers and most of the general public.
She was the darling of the conference and now she is courageously in the process of laying out her pitch to be the next leader of the Conservative Party – in so doing she is shaping the agenda of that contest when it comes.
READ MORE: Lee Anderson launches Suella defence as No10 confirms split with PM
Is Braverman launching a leadership bid?
It is fairly transparent that Ms Braverman is now in the throes of a leadership bid.
She has now focussed the next leadership election on anti-woke, strong law and order, tough on migration culture wars issues which will appeal to the Tory membership.
But she is far from being alone in preparing for what seems to be an inevitable contest either before the election or, more likely, after a disastrous defeat to Labour.
To different levels, already there are people pushing Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Penny Mordaunt, James Cleverly, Gillian Keegan, Sir Jake Berry, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, Claire Coutinho and a Liz Truss proxy from her economic growth group.
It is fair to say that Braverman is being more blatant about it.
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Why do some people in Downing Street want her sacked?
Today’s lobby briefing confirmed that Downing Street and those around Rishi Sunak are not happy.
They made a point of saying she had not cleared her controversial opinion piece properly and that the Prime Minister disagreed with part of it.
Labour was quick to point out that this meant she has broken the ministerial code.
A member of Liz Truss’s Downing Street team got in touch to say that Braverman was behaving with Sunak exactly how she did with Truss in the events leading up to her being sacked then as Home Secretary.
By this the ex-senior staffer meant: “A loose cannon pursuing her own policy agenda and leadership ambitions.”
Truss sacked Braverman but in so doing hastened her own demise – so maybe there is a lesson there
Why hasn’t she been sacked?
As the afternoon wears on it is clear she will not be sacked by Sunak, and it is fair to ask, “why not?”
The simple reason is that Braverman is the only representative of the party’s rightwing in the Cabinet.
All the rest are “wishy washy liberals”, as one Braverman ally described them, or “people who don’t believe in anything other than their careers.”
Kemi Badenoch, in particular, has lost a lot of her support on the right of the party and is too associated with Mihael Gove and his shadowy group’s machinations to be fully trusted.
Another MP was blunter: “If Suella goes then Rishi’s government will collapse. It will send a terrible signal.”
A close ally of hers added: “Suella provides cover for Sunak on the right of the party but more importantly she is the only cabinet member who speaks for the coalition of voters who gave us that massive win in 2019.
“Without her he loses a lot of political cover.”
Who are Braverman’s supporters?
But what was also important was that the right of the party came out publicly to support her.
Lee Anderson, a deputy chairman with immense popular influence, was quick out of the traps telling Express.co.uk: “The Home Secretary is only saying what most people are thinking. She is allowed to comment on and criticise the Met police. Anyone who thinks her comments are outrageous need to get out more.”
But senior Brexiteers like Lord Frost and members of the influential rightwing Common Sense Group rallied to her cause.
What that signalled was that a Braverman sacking will result in a bloodbath in the parliamentary party with Sunak losing control of the right of his party.
More than likely it would bring an abrupt end to the Sunak government either through a leadership challenge or a forced election.
Rwanda decision incoming
But there is also a crucial date to take into account.
Next Wednesday is the Supreme Court’s judgement on the deportation flights to Rwanda for illegal migrants.
Sunak and Braverman have been as one in trying to get this scheme to work before the election.
There is no way Sunak can sack Braverman before that hearing and in reality, what follows could decide the fate of both of them and the entire party.
If the judges side with the government, then the flights can go ahead and the party can remain largely united.
But if the judges agree with the Appeals Court, then all hell may break loose.
At that point Sunak will be under immense pressure to agree to leave the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR), which is blocking the measure, or at the very least deregate it in regards to illegal migration.
The One Nation group of liberal wets on the left of the party will fight tooth and nail against such a move.
But the right of the party with the support of Braverman will be unequivocal in demanding it.
At that point it may be that Braverman leaves of her own accord to trigger an open civil war herself in a bid to become leader or the Prime Minister tries to move on from her.
Braverman’s vision vs no vision from Sunak
But Sunak now does have a significant disadvantage to Braverman.
As one Tory MP put it: “Suella has given us a vision of real Conservatism and the Prime Minister has given us very little.”
In fact, she is the only one currently articulating a vision with MPs incredibly disappointed with the lack of one in the King’s Speech.
“A long list of nothing,” was how one Tory described it.
The only competing ideas are coming from Liz Truss’s growth group with their low tax, low regulation push.
Can Braverman win a Tory leadership contest?
The real question though is not whether there will be a leadership election or if Ms Braverman will be a candidate – both are obviously going to happen – but whether Braverman could win.
This is far from certain and would depend on her getting to the final two where she is likely to appeal to a majority of the Tory membership.
The issue, which is problem for all hopefuls, is the way the Tory MPs have fragmented into factions which hate one another.
Ms Braverman is the culture war, anti-woke Brexiteer, tough on law and order and migration rightwing faction.
But there is the economically liberal Liz Truss faction which wants high immigration as well as low taxes and low regulation (things Ms Braverman is not politically keen on).
On top of that the biggest faction is the One Nation group on the left who already have their “anybody but Suella” team.
Braverman will be fighting in a limited pool of MPs on the right probably against Priti Patel and Kemi Badenoch. Not much love lost there between the three of them.
Then she may need to contend with Michael Gove’s shadowy group identified by Nadine Dorries for bringing down Boris Johnson who will try to manipulate the leadership election probably in favour of Badenoch.
It could be that in a bid to end the factionalism the party may pick a compromise candidate like Cleverly, who probably not coincidentally is currently the most popular cabinet minister according to ConHome.
All in all, though the events of today and this week are part of a much bigger contest for the soul of the Conservative Party.
Braverman may be in ascendency, but she is a long way from victory.
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