McConnell vows to move forward with replacing Justice Ginsburg, but does he have the votes?

WASHINGTON — Mitch McConnell vowed to hold a vote on a replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg, but the big question is whether he has the votes to confirm a Supreme Court Justice only six weeks before the presidential election. 

Two Republican senators, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, have said recently that they would not vote for a Supreme Court nominee if a justice died or retired close to the presidential election.

Collins told a New York Times reporter earlier this month that she would not vote for a nominee in October. “I think that’s too close, I really do,” Collins said.

Murkowski told an Alaska Public Media reporter on Friday, just hours before Ginsburg died, that she would not vote on a nominee before the election.

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Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, is also likely to oppose any nominee put forward this close to the election.

McConnell has a 53-47 majority in the Senate, so he can technically afford to lose three Republican votes, because Vice President Mike Pence could break a tie and cast the deciding vote.

But there are a lot of other unknowns. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said in 2018 that if he was chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, he would not bring up a Supreme Court nominee in an election year. But Grassley’s comments were not an ironclad pledge not to vote for a nominee in an election year. 

In addition, the Judiciary Committee is now chaired by Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who has already flip-flopped on the issue. In 2018, Graham said, “If an opening comes in the last year of President Trump’s term, and the primary process has started, we’ll wait to the next election.” But this past May, Graham reversed himself, saying that the standard was whether the Senate was held by a party different than that of the president’s.

This is the same justification that McConnell used on Friday night to justify his push forward with a nominee for Trump, despite having stonewalled President Barack Obama’s nominee in 2016 when conservative Justice Antonin Scalia died in February of the election year.

8 PHOTOSObama appoints new Supreme Court justice Merrick GarlandSee GalleryObama appoints new Supreme Court justice Merrick GarlandFILE PHOTO –U.S. President Barack Obama annnounces Judge Merrick Garland (R) of the United States Court of Appeals as his nominee for the U.S. Supreme Courtin the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington March 16, 2016. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File PhotoJudge Merrick Garland, President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, meets with Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., May 25, 2016. REUTERS/Joshua RobertsJudge Merrick Garland, President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, meets with Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) (unseen) on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., May 25, 2016. REUTERS/Joshua RobertsWASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 16:U.S. President Barack Obama and Judge Merrick Garland, the president’s nominee to replace the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, walk into the Rose Garden at the White House, March 16, 2016 in Washington, DC. Merrick currently serves on the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, and if confirmed by the US Senate, would replace Antonin Scalia who died suddenly last month.(Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)WASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 16:Judge Merrick Garland speaks after being introduced by U.S. President Barack Obama as his nominee to the Supreme Court in the Rose Garden at the White House, March 16, 2016 in Washington, DC. Garland currently serves as the chief judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit and if confirmed by the US Senate, would replace the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia who died suddenly last month.(Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)U.S. President Barack Obama, left, shakes hands with Merrick Garland, chief judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, following the announcement of his nomination for the Supreme Court in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Wednesday, March 16, 2016. The nomination escalates a battle that will dominate the final 10 months of Obama’s presidency, as the White House is locked in an unprecedented dispute with Senate Republican leaders who have pledged to ignore the president’s choice. Photographer: Joshua Roberts/Bloomberg via Getty Images U.S. President Barack Obama, center, announces his nominee for the Supreme Court, Merrick Garland, chief judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, right, as Vice President Joseph ‘Joe’ Biden looks on in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Wednesday, March 16, 2016. The nomination escalates a battle that will dominate the final 10 months of Obama’s presidency, as the White House is locked in an unprecedented dispute with Senate Republican leaders who have pledged to ignore the president’s choice. Photographer: Joshua Roberts/Bloomberg via Getty Images US President Barack Obama joins his Supreme Court nominee, federal appeals court judge Merrick Garland (L), during the nomination announcement the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, DC, March 16, 2016.Garland, 63, is currently Chief Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. The nomination sets the stage for an election-year showdown with Republicans who have made it clear they have no intention of holding hearings to vet any Supreme Court nominee put forward by the president. / AFP / SAUL LOEB(Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)Up Next

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But McConnell’s main argument for blocking Obama’s nominee after Scalia died — which on its own was an enormous break with Senate norms — was that the Senate should not vote on a nominee during an election year.

“The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new president,” McConnell said hours after Scalia died. His initial statement said nothing about divided government.

Ten days later, in his first press conference after Scalia’s death in 2016, McConnell did mention the fact that no Supreme Court Justice had been confirmed by a Senate of the opposite party from the president since 1888, but he leaned most aggressively into the fact that it was an election year.

“We know what would happen if the shoe was on the other foot. We know what would happen. A nominee of a Republican president would not be confirmed by a Democratic Senate when the vacancy was created in a presidential election year. That’s a fact,” McConnell said. 

The argument about divided government is not entirely a reverse-engineered construct, but it’s a thin reed. 

There are two scenarios to play out. Can McConnell get 51 votes before the election, and can he get them after the election?

 

Even if Grassley folds like Graham, that leaves the three Republicans who are likely to resist a Trump nominee before the election: Collins, Murkowski and Romney. Collins will be under the greatest pressure since she is in a heated race for reelection and currently trails her challenger in the polls.

 

But while Pence could break a 50-50 tie, there is one other Republican senator up for reelection — Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina — who would not want to cast the deciding vote on a lifetime appointment to the nation’s highest court. Other Republicans up for reelection, in particular Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado and Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona, are likely to lose this November, and therefore have little incentive to vote against Trump if they harbor political ambitions for the future, which both clearly do.

There are a number of other Republicans who might theoretically vote against a nominee. However, if Democrats have learned anything from the Trump era, it has been that when Republicans have to choose between principle and Trump, the president usually wins. 

Nonetheless, Republicans such as Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, who is retiring, and Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska, may still have something of an independent streak, and could refuse to go along with any plans to ram through a Trump nominee.  

But if Trump were to lose the election, that would present a new Rubik’s Cube of political considerations. It could mean that McConnell would have an easier time getting 51 votes once Republicans like Collins and Tillis felt freed from immediate political constraints.

But on the other hand, the public outrage at a defeated president trying to install a Supreme Court justice on his way out would likely draw massive public protests and outrage. And there are some signs that normally reliable Trump allies in the Senate may tread carefully in the weeks to come. 

“The most difficult months in a generation are now upon us. Pray that God protect our country and provide wisdom to our people,” said Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., in a tweet on Friday. 

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