Labour gain an even bigger lead in polls – Boris and Tory headaches deepen

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Since the turn of 2022 a number of developments have helped to ebb away support for Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party. The main beneficiaries of its downfall have been Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. Such is the voting swing that if a general election was held today, Labour would emerge as the largest party.

Labour was polling with 40 percent of the electorate on June 15, according to Politico’s Poll of Polls.

The figure was seven percentage points higher than the Tories, which have a score of 33 percent.

Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrat Party holds the next largest proportion of the vote – 13 percent – with all other parties polling with five percent or less.

The pollster aggregated data from multiple sources to give a more accurate picture of the national mood.

In its Poll of Polls, every data point represented one result from one poll.

For polls to be included they must be transparent. For example, at a minimum it must include information about how the poll was conducted.

Secondly, a poll must be based on a sample of people that is under the polling firm’s control.

Doing so ensures it is as representative as possible of the population the firm wants to draw conclusions about.

Voting intention swung in Labour’s favour on November 26, 2021, around the same time allegations began to emerge about Government lockdown parties.

As the Partygate saga developed, support for Mr Johnson’s administration has fallen away drastically.

The greatest difference between the two parties’ vote share came in the middle of January, when Labour held a score of 41 percent and the Conservatives 32 percent.

Support for the Tories has also suffered because of allegations of sleaze, and its handling of the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, last summer.

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Mr Johnson’s support base within his own party has also suffered as a result of Partygate, and led to him facing a vote of confidence earlier this month.

The PM won the vote by 211 votes to 148, but it has not removed calls for him to resign from office.

A key test of Mr Johnson’s leadership could come next week in the form of two by-elections.

Votes are due to be held in Wakefield, as well as Honiton and Tiverton, on Thursday, June 23.

The Lib Dems are expected to provide tough competition in Honiton and Tiverton, with Labour predicted to do the same in Wakefield.

A poor performance in either could lead to renewed pressure on Mr Johnson to step down.

Speculation has even arisen that the PM could be subjected to another confidence vote.

Under current party rules a victorious leader cannot face another vote for at least 12 months.

However, Tobias Ellwood – Tory MP for Bournemouth East – recently said it was his understanding that the heads of the 1922 Committee are exploring the option for another vote to take place within six months’ time.

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