Report: Estimated Tesla Order Backlog Fell To The Lowest Level In 2022

Tesla’s global electric car order backlog, which is mainly a function of supply and demand, continues to decrease, reaching the lowest result in 2022.

According to Troy Teslike, who provides very interesting Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated order backlog as of September 21, 2022 was about 317,000 cars (globally).

The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times), as shown in the attached tweet.

That’s about 68,000 or 18% less than 385,000 units on August 31 (according to an updated estimate, which previously was 414,000 on August 31 and 381,000 as of September 7).

While some of the numbers are adjusted in accordance with more precise data, the chart shown above clearly indicates a downward trend. That’s really positive news for customers who will not have to wait so long for their cars.

There is a big chance that in the not-too-distant future, the estimated order backlog might return below 250,000 units, which combined with a significantly expanded manufacturing capacity (upgrade of the Chinese plant, two new gigafactories – one in Germany and one in Texas, and ongoing upgrades at the plant in California), will allow Tesla to significantly reduce the wait times.

In Q3 2022 Tesla set new production and sales records.

According to the report, the 317,000 units represent 78 days of global Tesla production, which means that the assumed rate is 1.48 million units annually.

The following tweet includes info about the average wait time for particular models (new orders) for particular markets.

As we can see, the best situation is in China, where the average is just 7 days. However, in most cases, customers have to wait a three-digit number of days.

In North America, the shortest time is for the Tesla Model Y Performance (20 days), Tesla Model 3 Performance (40 days) and the entry-level Tesla Model 3 RWD (55 days).

Once Tesla reduces the order backlog, we will probably see the re-introduction of the Tesla Model 3 Long Range (AWD) version in North America, which recently appeared in Tesla’s existing inventory in a small number of 2023 model year vehicles.

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